Economic, CU Forecast
CUNA’s Economic and Credit Union 2011-2012 Forecast available here.
| Economic Forecast (March, 2012) | ||||||||
| Actual Results | Quarterly Results/Forecasts | Annual Forecasts | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Yr Avg | 2011 | 2012:1 | 2012:2 | 2012:3 | 2012:4 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| Growth rates: | ||||||||
| *Economic Growth (% chg GDP) | 0.56% | 1.70% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 2.75% | 3.00% | 2.56% | 3.00% |
| Inflation (% chg CPI) | 2.24% | 3.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | ||||
| Core Inflation (ex. food & energy) | 1.76% | 2.20% | 2.00% | 2.00% | ||||
| Unemployment Rate | 7.66% | 8.93% | 8.30% | 8.15% | 8.00% | 7.85% | 8.08% | 7.50% |
| Fed Funds Rate | 1.45% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.25% |
| 10-Year Treasury Rate | 3.46% | 2.66% | 2.00% | 2.10% | 2.20% | 2.30% | 2.15% | 2.75% |
| * Percent change, annual rate. All other numbers are averages for the period | ||||||||
| Credit Union Forecast (March, 2012) | ||||||||
| Actual Results | Quarterly Results/Forecasts | Annual Forecasts | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Yr Avg | 2011 | 2012:1 | 2012:2 | 2012:3 | 2012:4 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| Growth rates: | ||||||||
| Savings growth | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Loan growth | 3.0% | 1.1% | -0.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 6.0% |
| Asset growth | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Membership growth | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% |
| Liquidity: | ||||||||
| Loan-to-share ratio** | 76.9% | 69.2% | 66.7% | 67.4% | 68.5% | 68.6% | 68.6% | 69.2% |
| Asset quality: | ||||||||
| Delinquency rate | 1.50% | 1.60% | 1.50% | 1.40% | 1.30% | 1.20% | 1.35% | 1.00% |
| Net chargeoff rate* | 0.92% | 0.91% | 0.90% | 0.85% | 0.80% | 0.70% | 0.81% | 0.65% |
| Earnings: | ||||||||
| Return on average assets (ROA)* | 0.46% | 0.68% | 0.90% | 0.90% | 0.90% | 0.90% | 0.90% | 0.90% |
| Capital adequacy: | ||||||||
| Net worth ratio** | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 11.0% |
| * End of period annualized rate **End of period ratio See also our MCUE website If you have any questions or comments send an email to srick@cuna.coop | ||||||||
Get a PowerPoint file of this info here.
Copyright © 2012 Credit Union National Association
