Hampel to Bloomberg: Recovery pushed back to 4th Q

MADISON, Wis. (7/6/09)--The U.S. economic recovery may slide back to the fourth quarter of 2009 from the previously predicted third quarter, Bill Hampel, chief economist at the Credit Union National Association, told Bloomberg TV Thursday.

Hampel was responding to questions from host Pimm Fox on Bloomberg's "Taking Stock" show about disappointing unemployment numbers from the U.S. Labor Department in the June jobs report, released Thursday.

"We thought the third quarter would be the turning point of the tepid recovery," Hampel said. "We are now pushing it back to the fourth quarter. But the stimulus package should get the economy recovering--just not at a barn-burner pace."

Although the June jobs report was a disappointment, with national unemployment edging up to 9.5%, "one month of data doesn't mean we have to change the total outlook," Hampel said.

"The last two months taken together are still up from the free fall of the fourth quarter of last year," he added. "Employment numbers are a lagging indicator, so the last thing we will see improve is employment."

Hampel also was asked about the state of loan growth at credit unions.

"We have two indicators," Hampel said. "In the first five months of this year, deposit growth has been the strongest we've had in years. However, loan growth is down.

"The household sector has moved to restoring its savings," he added.

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