Election Watch 2006
U.S. House of Representatives
| Track House races with our CU tally sheet |
When handicapping elections, one should look first at the open seats, given that incumbents are reelected over 95% of the time. This cycle, there are 32 open House seats, 11 currently held by Democrats and 21 by Republicans. Republicans start off having to defend more seats, although Democrats need to win 71% (15 of 21) of the Republican seats, while also winning all 11 of their own.
On paper, then, the Democrats have a tall order. Yet the environment could hardly be worse for Republicans right now – public anxiety over the war, the economy, public corruption, repeated low approval ratings for the President and fall-out from various scandals involving Republican Congressmen add up to hard times for GOP incumbents. When one goes district-by-district and examines polls and individual candidates, the story only gets worse for the Republicans.
Consider the ratings of noted political analyst Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. Cook has 57 seats that are considered competitive, either "Toss Up" or "Lean" (a race-by-race breakdown of all 57 is included in this issue). Of those 57, only seven Democratic seats are deemed competitive at all, and none of these is in the "Toss Up" category. It is these dismal race-by-race numbers for Republicans that have led analysts to predict a Democratic wave sufficient enough to sweep Democrats back into control (Cook himself has suggested anywhere from a 20 – 35 seat net pickup for the Democrats). Indeed, it is generally agreed upon that there are anywhere from five to seven current Republican seats that are already conceded by both parties as not winnable for the GOP.
What should you look for on election night? Keep an eye on a few key states as their returns come in. Connecticut has three vulnerable GOP incumbents; Pennsylvania, five; Ohio, four and Indiana, three. Should Democrats sweep in two or more of these states, it could be a long night for Republicans. If the Republicans should start losing seats in Kentucky or New York, a Democratic wave will start to look more like a tsunami. Conversely, if the GOP can hold its own in these key states, the Republicans will pull out an upset victory. Included in this issue is a comprehensive list of all the House races around the country, complete with comments on each one.
So, will Democrats get to the magic number of 15? If so, how big of a majority will there be? Tune in Tuesday night and see. Be sure to use our printable tally sheet to keep score at home (or wherever the night takes you). Come Wednesday, November 9, there may be new leadership in the House of Representatives.
