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Election Watch 2006

U.S. Senate

Track Senate races with our CU tally sheet

One third of the U.S. Senate is elected every two years. In 2006 that means 18 Democratic held seats and 15 Republican held seats are up for election. With an overall margin of 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats and one independent who caucuses with the Democrats (retiring Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont), Democrats need a net gain of just six seats to take the majority (a five seat pickup and the resulting 50-50 tie would still result in GOP control with Vice President Cheney’s tie-breaking vote).

So what are the chances for a change in who controls the Senate? Democrats essentially need to defend all 18 of their own seats and then win all the competitive Republican-held seats. Analyst Charlie Cook has eight states listed in the “Toss Up” category: Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia and Tennessee. You can read about these races (and the other 25 as well) in our state-by-state breakdown. But as the election season comes to a close, it is looking increasingly like the Senate will be decided in just five of those eight.

New Jersey has the only currently held Democratic seat that may be in jeopardy. Sen. Bob Menendez, recently appointed to fill the unexpired term of Governor Jon Corzine, is facing a fierce challenge from Tom Kean, Jr., son and namesake of a popular former governor. In Missouri and Montana, incumbent Republican Senators Jim Talent and Conrad Burns are facing the toughest challenges of their careers from Claire McCaskill and Jon Tester, respectively. Sen. George Allen (R-VA), once considered a potential 2008 presidential contender, is now facing a severe challenge from anti-war candidate and former Reagan Navy Secretary, Jim Webb. Finally, the open seat to replace retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist in Tennessee is essentially up for grabs between Memphis Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. and former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker in a race that has become increasingly negative in the final weeks.

The path to a majority seems harder for the Democrats in the Senate than for their counterparts in the House, given that they seemingly can’t afford a single loss in any of these races. The GOP is certainly playing defense, but in terms of keeping the Senate they hold the upper hand. Still, this is by all means a Democratic year, so how these races end up is anyone’s guess. Our convenient tally sheet will help you keep score as the votes come in.