Election Watch 2006
Portent of Things to Come?
The Bilbray Victory in CA-50 – What does it mean?
On Tuesday, June 6th, eight states held primary elections, the first big day in this midterm election year. With so many races nationwide on this "Super Tuesday," there were many interesting story lines and results. Perhaps no race, however, filled the imagination of political junkies everywhere as the closely-watched special runoff election to fill the open 50th Congressional District of California.
The seat’s former occupant, Duke Cunningham, resigned earlier this year after pleading guilty to bribery charges. While the seat was a nominally safe GOP district, Democrats hoped candidate Francine Busby could ride public disgust over corruption into an upset victory, and in the process, foreshadow a coming Democratic "wave" this fall. Republicans, of course, hoped former U.S. Rep. Brian Bilbray would hold the seat for the GOP, thereby puncturing the conventional wisdom that this will be a Democratic year. Political pundits and commentators everywhere zeroed in on the results with an eye for November.
As any casual observer of national politics knows by now, Bilbray won, although by less than 6,000 votes and with under 50% of the vote (49% to Busby’s 45%). So what does it mean? Can the GOP breathe a sigh of relief and expect to hold their majorities in Congress this fall? Or is a victory by a Republican in one GOP-leaning district in June not a good indicator of the national mood in November? It depends on whom you ask.
Republicans, while breathing a sigh of relief, point to Bilbray’s victory as a sign that, in the words of former House Speaker Thomas ‘Tip’ O’Neal (D-MA), "all politics is local". That is to say national elections are fought and won district by district, on local issues (in case of this border state district, the red-hot issue of immigration). Despite Democratic predictions beforehand, no tidal wave of voter discontent materialized, and the taint of Cunningham’s scandal did not stick to another Republican. All this bodes well for GOP incumbents this fall, say Republicans.
Democrats naturally see it differently. They point out that this was a race the GOP should have always won (the district has a 55,000 GOP registration edge and Bush won it in 2004 with 55% of the vote). For Busby to have performed as well as she did, and to hold Bilbray to less than 50% of the vote, signifies that normally Republican voters either crossed over or stayed home. This, argue Democrats, could be a sign that GOP incumbents in more marginal districts than CA-50 could be in real trouble come November if national trends continue.
Who is right? The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. In a normal year, this race would not have been even close, and yet, as the Democrats must make up a full fifteen seats to take the House, they may ultimately need an even bigger wave in November than the gentle ripple in San Diego on June 6th. And while we political junkies can’t predict the future, we can at least take heart that these mid-term elections will be the most closely fought in years!
