Election Watch 2006
Taking Back the House
“On just about every empirical measurement – the President’s approval rating, the approval rating of Congress, and the right direction/wrong track – the political environment is as bad or worse as it was for the then-majority Democrats in 1994.” [¹] National surveys and polls reflect an electorate unsatisfied with the status-quo. Democrats need to pick-up at least 15 seats to regain the majority in the House. Since WWII, the average midterm seat loss for the president’s party is 24 seats. Additionally, when the president’s approval rating drops below 50%, the average midterm seat loss is 38 seats. [²] George Bush’s approval rating has consistently remained below 50%.
Republicans enjoy the White House and the governing majority in both the U.S. House and Senate; however generic ballot tests reveal an American electorate more likely to vote for Democrats than Republicans. Why are Americans seeking change? Several issues trigger a necessary change in government – terrorism, the wars in Iraq & Afghanistan and other international conflicts, ethics problems, economic woes, rising fuel prices, immigration, and the increasing costs and decreasing availability of quality education & healthcare. As Bill Clinton said, “Americans want peace and prosperity”. Americans have grown tired of the war in Iraq - what happened to “Mission Accomplished”? As for the war in Afghanistan – where is Bin Laden?
The American mood has caused Republican House incumbents to play defense. Under the leadership of Chairman Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL-5), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has raised a record war chest and has arguably recruited the best Democratic challengers and open-seat candidates in decades. According to the latest Cook Political Report, there are no Democratic House seats rated as toss-ups, but there are 17 GOP toss-up seats. In addition to having quality candidates in a Democratic-friendly climate, Democratic candidates and the DCCC are well-funded and have taken away the Republican fundraising edge. And if all this wasn’t bad enough, many Republican incumbents facing a significant challenge have not experienced a real race in several election cycles.
The Blue Wave is sweeping the country and a lame duck GOP House and White House are imminent. The question is not, “Who will be in the majority?” but rather, “How big will the Democratic majority be?”
________________
[1] Walters, Amy. The Cook Political Report, “Can Republicans Hold On?”, August 9, 2006.
[2] Abramowitz, Alan I. “Can the Democrats Take the House? Uniting the Macro and Micro Perspectives”, Emory University Department of Political Science, April 3, 2006.
Why the Republicans Will Keep the House
With less than 70 days before the election, independent analysts and political observers say that the universe of competitive congressional races is broadening. Most of these newly identified endangered incumbents are Republican members. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report last week increased the number of GOP House seats up for grabs to 17 from 15; 36 seats are rated “lean Republican” or “toss up.” No Democratic seats are rated “toss up.” The Cook report labels 55 House Republican seats and 20 House Democratic seats as competitive.
Many political analysts are also asking themselves, will 2006 be a repeat of 1994 that ushered in a Republican controlled House of Representatives and the Contract with America?
The simple answer is no.
For the 2006 elections, Republican candidates are better prepared for the political storm about to hit them than Democrats were in 1994. Candidates, campaigns and the party committees are smarter, faster, stronger and better financed than they were 12 years ago. Democrats will not take over the House of Representatives.
National polls consistently show that approval ratings of Democrats in Congress are no better than those of Republicans. A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll (July 21-24,2006), showed the approval rating for Congressional Republicans at 33 percent. Democrats in Congress fared about the same with a 32 percent approval rating. In a recent Diageo/Hotline poll, Democrats and Republicans tied among likely voters in the generic congressional ballot, 40-40%. Democrats lead among all registered voters 40-33%.
Incumbents who earlier this year were expected to easily win reelection could face challenging races, including Reps. Peter King (R-NY), Jerry Weller (R-IL), and Mark Foley (R-FL). These three races are listed by the Cook report as “likely Republican.”
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds (R-NY) has said he expected three dozen hotly contested House races. If that holds true, Democrats would have to dominate these races in order to have a realistic shot of winning back the House. However, the President could still be a liability for many members. The latest Diageo/Hotline poll (August 2006) has President Bush's job approval rating at 39% among registered voters, up from 38% last month (July 2006). Among a likely voter sub-sample Bush's approval rating is 42%.
Despite the downcast political climate, Republicans will continue to try to paint Democrats as hopelessly liberal and unreliable in the war on terror. And still, there are lingering questions about Democrats’ ability to get out the vote, an area where Republicans have excelled in recent elections.
Overall, Republicans have a solid infrastructure in place, as well proven advisors in positions of power. While this may be an uphill battle, Republicans will retain the majority.
