Election Watch 2006
Issues Shaping November Elections
Of the many issues that can affect voters’ decisions come November, it is hard to predict if just one or two of these hot-button topics will overshadow the others. Rarely have there been so many important issues in the forefront as there are now. The war in Iraq, terrorism, gas prices, immigration and the economy are just a few of the subjects concerning the nation as we head into the elections. One or two of these hot-button issues would usually be expected, but this year is shaping up as anything but ordinary.
The President’s approval ratings continue to slump, occasionally dipping near record lows. Gas prices remain at record highs, straining an economy already showing early signs of inflation. Perhaps most ominous for the party in power, the public’s perception of the war in Iraq and the war on terror appears to be shifting away from the Bush administration and its allies on Capitol Hill. The situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate, with even U.S. generals stationed there speaking openly of a “civil war.” The recently foiled airline bombing plot in Britain served as a stark reminder on the eve of the fifth anniversary of 9/11 that terrorism continues to threaten Americans. Throughout the Bush presidency, national security issues have been won by Republicans and made a critical difference in 2002 and 2004. Recent polls suggest, however, that voters are starting to separate the U.S. war in Iraq from the ongoing war on terror in their minds, and beginning to view the former as an unsuccessful distraction from the latter. Democrats, sensing opportunity, are becoming increasingly emboldened in their attacks on Iraq and national security issues, and even a few heavily targeted Republican incumbents in swing districts have sought to distance themselves from the President on these issues.
Complicating things for the GOP on the issues front is a fierce internal debate within the Party over immigration reform. Citing polls and angry contacts from constituents, conservative House Republicans have called for tighter border security and stricter restrictions on immigration. This puts them at odds with not only Democrats, but with the White House, Senate Republicans and traditional allies in the business community, all of whom want, in addition to tighter border security, a process whereby illegal immigrants currently in the U.S. can be legalized and mainstreamed into society. The split among Republicans on this radioactive issue could have adverse consequences on turnout this fall if either side, the moderates or conservatives, were to stay home on Election Day in protest.
So, given the current political environment, who will emerge victorious – the Republicans or Democrats? Will the GOP’s inherent advantages as incumbents counterbalance the public’s surging dissatisfaction with the administration on issues such as gas prices and Iraq? Or will Democrats be able to overcome the defeats suffered in recent years and take back one or both Houses of Congress? Two months is a lifetime in politics, and time will tell. Elsewhere in this issue of Election Watch, we have perspectives from both the left and right on what might happen this fall. We hope you will consider the evidence, and, of course, stay tuned. Whatever happens, it should be a fun sixty days for political aficionados.
