Election Watch 2006
A Tale of Two Races, Continued
Tennessee
The race to replace retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R) is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the country. On November 7th, two capable candidates will square off. On the Democratic side is Congressman Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN-9), and on the Republican side is Bob Corker, the former Mayor of Chattanooga.
It is a popular belief among lesser-informed Americans that the South is a solid Republican voting block. While it is true that Republicans have made great strides building support over past election cycles, it is not true that Tennessee and other southern states are so “red” that Democratic candidates can no longer competitively run. Tennessee is a prime example of a state where Democrats remain viable. The Governor is a Democrat, 5 out of 9 U.S. Congressman are Democrats, the state Senate is comprised of 17 Republicans and 16 Democrats, and the state House is comprised of 53 Democrats and 46 Republicans. Tennessee is mainly drawn into three distinct geographical areas, east, west, and middle. It is important for any credible statewide candidate to understand the differences and history among these regions, and the politics associated with them. “Tennessee is and has long been a political battleground. Its political divisions have their roots in the Civil War, and many counties today still vote their 1860s loyalties: The Union counties, mainly in the east but with a scattering to the west, vote solidly Republican, while the Confederate counties in the middle and west Tennessee have long been heavily Democratic. 1 Currently, each of the nine U.S. Congressional Districts reflects these political loyalties.
Senator Bill Frist was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994 in an upset over then-Senator Jim Sasser (D). Before entering the general election Frist defeated Bob Corker 44% - 32%. Frist is keeping his pledge to retire from the U.S. Senate after serving two terms. Many speculate that Frist will run for the White House in 2008.
Like Sen. Frist, Rep. Harold Ford Jr. comes from well known Tennessee family. Ford was sworn in to represent the Ninth District of Tennessee in 1996 at the age of 26, and is now serving his fifth term in the U.S. House of Representatives. Ford serves on the House Financial Services and Budget Committees, and is also a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of moderate and conservative House Democrats.
Bob Corker served as the Mayor of Chattanooga from 2001-2005. Corker has been a dedicated member of the Republican Party and was appointed Commissioner of Finance and Administration in 1995 for the state of Tennessee. On August 3rd Corker emerged victorious from a tough primary election against former Congressmen Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant.
While both candidates have outstanding public service records, Harold Ford Jr. is the credit union candidate of choice. Both candidates are widely viewed as moderates and the outcome of the election will largely depend on voter turnout. One school of thought is that in the current political environment, Democrats will have a strong voter turnout. If Republican voters see Corker as a moderate and not the “Republican’s Republican” they may stay home on Election Day. Ford also has the benefit of having the popular Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen at the top of the ticket. With help from the credit union movement and the building national Democratic momentum, Harold Ford Jr. will be victorious on November 7th.
1 “Tennessee State Profile”, Almanac of American Politics 2004, National Journal
Allen Chew
Missouri
Five Senate Republican incumbents remain highly vulnerable. Among them, Jim Talent of Missouri, Conrad Burns of Montana, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, and Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island.
To win the Senate from the Republican majority, Democrats need a net gain of six seats. The most likely way for them to accomplish that is by defeating all five of the most endangered Republican senators and winning in Tennessee or Arizona, while holding all of their own seats.
The Missouri Senate contest between Senator Jim Talent (R) and Missouri State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) has been drawing national attention. This race is very close, and in no way is the result a foregone conclusion. It, in fact, could tip the balance in deciding which party will keep control of the Senate.
Jim Talent was elected Missouri’s junior senator in 2002 after a tough battle with Jean Carnahan. It is a far different political climate today than when Senator Talent was first elected in 2002. Then, President Bush had a 60-plus percent approval rating and the war in Iraq had not yet begun. Today, a majority of Americans disapprove of both Bush and the war. For the last several months, President Bush’s approval rating has fallen below 40 percent.
Claire McCaskill, as State Auditor, has been credited for revolutionizing the office and making it into a watchdog for taxpayers and citizens. In 2004, McCaskill took on her own party’s establishment and became the first person ever to defeat a sitting Missouri governor in a primary election. She did not go on to win the election but she does have high name recognition throughout the state.
Defeating Talent is a key part of the Democratic strategic plan to win back the Senate, but it will not be easy. Bush carried the state twice, and the Republicans have lost only one U.S. Senate race here in the last 25 years. Democratic nominee Claire McCaskill is mounting a tough challenge. She trails Talent in fundraising, but is leading in some polls.
McCaskill's campaign has its fair share of problems. First, she aired an ad saying she voted to override John Ashcroft's 1990 veto of an ethanol initiative -- but she retired from the Legislature in 1989. Then she was sharply criticized by Republicans for saying that President Bush allowed the victims of Hurricane Katrina to die because they were poor and black. She now says her words were taken out of context.
Polls show Talent pulling slightly ahead of his challenger. McCaskill has focused her limited resources on southwest Missouri, traditionally a Republican stronghold. Talent has spent the most money in the suburbs, where his opponent has the edge. Talent however only has a single-digit lead. That suggests this race is far from over. Talent's strong base in the St. Louis area makes it difficult for McCaskill to build a winning coalition.
Senator Talent has a tough battle ahead of him, but he should be victorious in November. Look for their upcoming televised debate on “Meet the Press” on October 8th to learn about their issues.
Kate Abel
