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Election Watch 2006

Governor’s Races

Track Governors races with our CU tally sheet

While much of the national attention has been paid this election season to the battle for Congress, there are also 36 gubernatorial races on the ballot this year. Of all 50 governor’s mansions nationwide, Republicans currently hold a majority (28), although like their majorities in the U.S. House and Senate, this majority appears endangered as well.

Of the 36 races this year, nine are open due to retirements or term limits. Democrats must defend only one (Iowa), while the other eight are held by Republicans. According to most observers, three of those eight — Colorado, New York, and Ohio — are for the most part already in the Democratic column. Democrats are also leading in at least two GOP seats, Arkansas and Massachusetts, with solid candidates in Attorney General Mike Beebe and former Clinton administration Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick.

Republicans, for their part, do have some bright spots, such as the race in Alaska where the unpopular incumbent Republican, Frank Murkowski, lost his primary but whose party looks to hold on with nominee Sarah Palin. Attorney General Charlie Crist is leading in Florida to replace Gov. Jeb Bush, and U.S. Rep. Butch Otter is likely to be elected Governor of Idaho. Finally, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has surprised many by coming back from extremely low approval numbers just a year ago. He should win handily over Treasurer Phil Angelides.

There are plenty of competitive races as well (click here to see our race-by-race analysis). Iowa is a toss-up between Secretary of State Chet Culver (D) and U.S. Rep. Jim Nussle (R). Maryland Governor Bob Erlich (R) is facing a strong challenge from Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley (D). Minnesota Republican Tim Pawlenty is in a tough fight, as are incumbents Ted Kulongoski (D-OR), Don Carcieri (R-RI), and Jim Doyle (D-WI). Finally, Republicans hope anger over the failing Michigan economy will allow Amway CEO Dick DeVos to defeat Democratic incumbent Jennifer Granholm, who was once considered a rising star of her party.

Going into the final week, most observers say the odds are that Democrats will pick up at least a few Governors’ Mansions, but which ones, how many, or whether it will be enough to reverse the GOP’s majority nationwide is anyone’s guess. Keep an eye on these races on Tuesday night, and be sure to use our tally sheet to keep track of the most competitive.