Election Watch 2008

2008 Election Trends

As the November elections creep closer, states have begun to see a leap in voter registration and, as a result of this, voter turnout in the general election could continue to reach unprecedented levels. What effect could that have on both congressional races and the presidential election?

The Presidential primary and general election campaigns have felt the effects of early voting, absentee voting, and intense get-out-the vote efforts. Unfortunately, no one felt this effect more than the Hilary Clinton campaign. Early in the cycle, as the presumptive nominee, she was helped by early voting due to her high poll numbers and, of course, high name recognition. However, during the primary season, Barack Obama mobilized waves of new voters, including many young ones. As the primaries continued and Obama made headway with his new voting population, the tide turned for the Clinton campaign.

John McCain, however, has been less than successful mobilizing new voters to first register, and second to get out and vote early or by absentee ballot in the primary. Of course, his potential with this program has not been seen, possibly due to the fact that his nomination was known earlier in the cycle. One of Senator McCain's biggest challenges as he faces a general election contest with Senator Barack Obama is a continued wariness toward McCain among the Republican conservative base, a critical voting bloc that could stay home in the fall or at least be decidedly unenthusiastic in their efforts to get out the vote.

In 2008, absentee and early voting can be seen as a measure of voter interest and passion for the candidates. Does this mean that whichever candidate is able to get voters more excited over their candidacy will dominate the absentee and early vote ballots? If the primary season is any indication, McCain may have a long road to hoe. It may not be a leap in judgment to think that Republican down-ballot races may see the same results.

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