Election Watch 2008

Current Democratic Seats

Below are the seats, currently held by Democratic incumbents, deemed a “Toss-Up” by the Cook Political Report, an independent, nonpartisan handicapping and analysis service (as of August 30, 2008). In the Cook Political Report’s parlance, a rating of “Toss-Up” means “These are the most competitive [races]; either party has a good chance of winning.”

AL-5 OPEN (Cramer) – longtime incumbent and Blue Dog Democrats co-founder Bud Cramer (D) is retiring this year, giving the GOP one of their better pickup opportunities. They hope businessman Wayne Parker (R) will be able to defeat Senator Parker Griffith (D) in a district that Bush won in 2004 by 21 points.

KS-2 Nancy Boyda – Democrat Boyda pulled off a huge upset of Rep. Jim Ryun (R) in 2006. Now State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (R), a popular moderate Republican who defeated Ryun in the GOP primary, is hoping to return this heavily Republican district to the Republican side of the aisle.

LA-6 Don Cazayoux – the mid-term resignation of longtime Republican Rep. Richard Baker allowed the conservative Democratic state Representative Don Cazayoux to win a surprising special election earlier this year. Now he not only faces Republican state Senator Bill Cassidy, but also Democratic state Representative Michael Jackson, running as an independent.

MS-1 Travis Childers – Childers (D) won another surprise Deep South pickup for Democrats this year (see Cazayoux above), winning the special election to fill the vacancy created when incumbent Rep. Roger Wicker (R) was appointed to the U.S. Senate. Now Childers faces a rematch against Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R) for a full term. Childer’s challenge this time around is made more difficult by the presidential election, with John McCain expected to easily carry the district.

NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter – this district features a rematch of 2006, in which Shea-Porter (D) turned out incumbent Rep. Jeb Bradley (R). Expect a close one in a swing district that Bush carried 51-48 over Kerry in 2008.

PA-10 Chris Carney – Freshman Rep. Carney (D) won this heavily Republican district in 2006 following a scandal in which the married incumbent, Rep. Don Sherwood (R), was accused of physically abusing a woman who claimed a five year affair with him. Now Carney must hang on against businessman Chris Hackett in a district with a heavy GOP registration advantage.

PA-11 Paul Kanjorski – Twenty-four year incumbent Rep. Kanjorski (D) is facing his toughest reelection battle yet against Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta (R). The race has tightened in this Democratic district due to allegations of abuse of earmarks by Kanjorski.

TX-22 Nick Lampson – This heavily Republican district in the Houston suburbs was formerly held by discredited House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R). Lampson (D), himself a former member from a neighboring district, won the 22nd in 2006 on the heels of the DeLay’s resignation in the wake of Jack Abramoff scandal. Now Pete Olson (R), a former Chief of Staff to U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), hopes to win back this district which by registration ranks among the most Republican in the country.

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