Election Watch 2008
Current Republican Seats
As Congress scrambles to come up with a plan to solve this nation’s financial crisis they will soon be returning to their districts to kick off the last several weeks of their re-election campaigns. The fundamentals of each of their campaigns have changed dramatically over the past several weeks.
Democrats hold a lead in generic match-ups versus Republicans in this fall’s congressional races, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, conducted Sept. 19-21. Fifty-six percent of those surveyed said they favor Democrats in this fall’s elections, while 42 percent said they would vote Republican. The margin widened from a poll earlier this month, conducted by CNN/Opinion Research, in which Democrats held only a three-point advantage, leading the GOP 49-46 in generic match-ups.
Congress’s approval rating still remains very low, the poll found, with 22 percent of those surveyed saying they approve of Congress’s work. More than two-thirds, 78 percent, said they disapprove of Congress.
This political environment has made the upcoming election particularly volatile, and with many House seats left open this cycle due to retirements, Democrats may have opportunities for pick ups. But do not count the Republicans out of these races just yet.
Below are the seats currently held by Republican incumbent Members of Congress. These have also been assigned to the “Toss-Up” category by the Cook Political Report (as of August 30, 2008). There are over twice as many Republican seats in the “Toss Up” category as there are Democrats.
AL-2 OPEN (Everett) - This is a surprising race to see in the toss up category as the District went for Bush in 2004 by 13 points. Democrats persuaded Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) to run, and Bright easily won the Democratic primary. He now faces off against state Rep. Jay Love (R), who won a tough runoff in the Republican primary back in June.
AK-AL Don Young – Rep. Young (R) recently won the closest race of his career, defeating the state’s lieutenant governor by about 300 votes in the GOP primary. This was due to the fact that Don Young is under four separate federal investigations for abusing his office, including accepting bribes. Young will face former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D) in a tight race in November.
CO-4 Marilyn Musgrave – Rep. Musgrave (R) has represented this conservative Colorado district for three terms. This cycle, Democrats have put up businesswoman and former Larimer County Democratic Party Chairwoman Betsy Markey (D), who is a former top aide to Sen. Ken Salazar (D). Third party groups are playing heavily in the race, including the Defenders of Wildlife political action committee. They have made defeating Musgrave a top priority and have committed hundreds of thousands of dollars to the race.
CT-4 Christopher Shays – The 4th District of Connecticut has always been rough territory for Republicans. Rep.Shays (R), the last GOP House Member in New England, has long been a Democratic target. Shays has often defeated his Democratic opponents by only a few thousand votes in a district that voted for Democratic presidential candidates in 2000 and 2004. Shay’s opponent, Greenwich Democratic Town Committee Chairman Jim Himes (D), recently released internal polling data showing him in an even contest with Rep. Christopher Shays (R). The Feldman Group poll showed Himes and Shays tied at 45 percent each among the 500 likely voters interviewed Sept. 17-18.
FL-24 Tom Feeney - Rep. Feeney (R), chairman of the House Conservative’s Fund, is in a tough race this cycle. Feeney’s fundraising woes and his shaky standing with district voters due to a now-infamous Scotland golf trip in 2003 have caught this member off guard. In the previous cycle, Feeney soundly defeated computer programmer Clint Curtis (D), 58 percent to 42 percent. Democrats have continued to up their funds and presence in the district.
IL-10 Mark Kirk – The 10th District of IL, the North Shore Chicago suburbs, are becoming ever more Democratic. Rep. Kirk (R) remains popular this cycle as a champion of suburban interests and has raised money at an impressive pace. GOP polls show him far ahead. The Democrat, Dan Seals, a business consultant is trying again after a loss in 2006. But Seals should be helps immensely by the top of the ticket, Barack Obama.
LA-4 OPEN (McCrery) - Democrats are eyeing a district that Rep. McCrery (R) had dominated for many years. The three-candidate Republican field includes John Fleming, a physician; Chris Gorman, a transportation company executive; and Jeff Thompson, a lawyer and former official at the Shreveport-area Chamber of Commerce. Democrats nominee, Paul Carmouche (D), has been the district attorney for nearly 30 years in the parish that envelops Shreveport. This race could be decided late. Hurricane Gustav prompted Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal to postpone the regularly scheduled Sept. 6 primary election. The new schedule includes a primary on Oct. 4 and a runoff election, if necessary, on Nov. 4, the national Election Day. The general election would be held Dec. 6 if a Republican runoff is required.
MI-7 Tim Walberg – Rep. Walberg (R) is a conservative that unseated a moderate, Rep. Joe Schwarz (R), 2006. He then barely won the general election against the Democrat. This cycle the Democrats have state Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer (D) running. The district favors the GOP on paper with an R+2 ranking, but Schauer has proven to be a better fundraiser than Walberg, and the race should be close to the end. In the latest poll taken on July 8-9, Walberg was in the lead 47% to Schauer’s 31%.
MN-3 OPEN (Ramstad) – In the third district, Republicans nominated state Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) a former Ramstad staffer. The Democratic contest ended in an upset. State Sen. Terri Bonoff was the favorite of most party leaders, but she was defeated in the party nominating process by Ashwin Madia (D), an attorney and Iraq War veteran. Both Paulsen and Madia are good candidates.
NV-3 Jon Porter – Due to the constant influx of newcomers into the district, Rep. Porter (R) has constantly had a tight race. This time around the Democratic nominee is state Senator Dina Titus (D), who was the party’s gubernatorial nominee in 2006 and turned down a shot at Porter’s seat earlier. She’s well-known and has been raising money very quickly. But given her late start, Porter probably has the advantage for now, but Titus has gained traction.
NJ-3 OPEN (Saxton) - This southern New Jersey district gave President Bush just 51 percent of the vote in 2004, and Al Gore won it in 2000. The Democrats have nominated state Senator John Adler (D). The Republicans nominee is Lockheed Martin Vice President Christopher Myers (R), who was backed by Rep. Saxton in the primary. Myers is working to unify the GOP, and he probably will. But this is still an excellent pickup opportunity for the Democrats.
NJ-7 OPEN (Ferguson) – Rep. Ferguson’s (R) decision to leave Congress early could open the door for his 2006 opponent, state Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D), to grab his seat. She lost by just 1 point in 2006 and began ramping up her fundraising operation even before Ferguson disclosed his retirement plans. Republicans had a crowded and somewhat divisive primary but emerged with a strong nominee in state Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance (R), who supports abortion rights and gets strong support from environmental groups.
NM-1 OPEN (Wilson) – At the beginning of 2008, Rep. Wilson (R) jumped at the opportunity to run for Senate as soon as Sen. Pete Domenici (R) announced his retirement plans, but fell just short in the Republican primary. Her district was already a major Democratic target, and now it is more of one. The race to succeed Wilson features two very attractive candidates: former Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich (D) and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White (R). On paper, this district favors Democrats slightly, but Republicans have held this seat since the late 60s.
NY-29 Randy Kuhl – In 2006 Rep. Kuhl’s (R) challenger, retired Navy commander Eric Massa (D), fell just 6,000 votes short. In 2008 he is trying again, and has a lot more institutional support this time, both within the district and in Washington, D.C. Although the sprawling district trends Republican in presidential election years, it will be a very competitive race.
NC-8 Robin Hayes – Rep. Hayes (R) defeated Larry Kissell (D), a relative nonentity who didn’t have much money, by just 300 votes in 2006. After finally conceding three weeks after Election Day, Kissell announced that he immediately would begin his 2008 campaign. National Democratic leaders, who ignored him throughout 2006, now appear comfortable with the idea that he is their nominee again. Hayes may also be adversely affected by the Senate race, as Dole is not in the safe position that she once was.
OH-1 Steve Chabot - Although a prime Democratic target in 2006, Rep. Chabot (R) emerged with a relatively comfortable 6-point victory. In 2008 he should have another tough challenge with state Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) running against him. A large African American turnout for Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) at the top of the ticket as the Democratic White House nominee could put Driehaus over the top. Obama has topped Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in a few different polls in the district.
OH-15 OPEN (Pryce) – In 2006, Rep. Pryce barely held off a challenge from Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D). It was a terrible year for Ohio Republicans, one in which many political analysts thought Pryce would lose. With Pryce’s departure and Kilroy running again, this race immediately shot to the top of the list of potential Democratic takeovers. State Sen. Steve Stivers (R) is an Iraq War veteran who also has been a statehouse lobbyist for financial services interests. Stivers has proven to be a top-tier candidate and Kilroy won’t have an easy time, as some had once predicted. Still, this district rates as one of Democrats’ juiciest pickup opportunities of the cycle and, with the district split right down the middle at the presidential level, it is expected to be a battle to the end.
OH-16 OPEN (Regula) - State Senator John Boccieri (D) and fellow state Sen. Kirk Schuring (R) are running to replace Rep. Ralph Regula (R), who is retiring after serving 18 terms in the House. Though the district has voted Republican in recent cycles, early polling gives Boccieri an edge in the race. A SurveyUSA poll commissioned by Roll Call gave Boccieri a lead over Schuring, 49 percent to 41 percent among 635 likely voters questioned Sept. 19-21.
WA-8 Dave Reichert – In 2006, Rep. Reichert (R) narrowly defeated political newcomer Darcy Burner (D) in a suburban Seattle district that is growing ever more Democratic. Burner is trying again in 2008. Reichert remains popular from his tenure as King County sheriff, but he is very vulnerable in a presidential election year. Burner has outraised Reichert in the last few reporting periods and will get plenty of help from national Democrats this time around.
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