Election Watch 2008

How Are Close Are the Races for the Senate?

Five, six, seven, eight, and now nine Senate seats that Democrats have a chance at taking over? During the past year it seemed impossible that Democrats would be able to hit 60 votes and a filibuster-proof majority. But here we are less than a month before the election and it is a real possibility.

History shows that close Senate races tend to break in the same direction as they did two years ago. Democrats have the edge in races for five seats currently held by Republicans. They are strongly favored to win two seats left open by Republican incumbents: the Virginia seat held by five-term Sen. John Warner and the New Mexico seat of six-term GOP Sen. Pete Domenici. Democrats also are rated as leading in races for the open Colorado seat of retiring two-term Republican Wayne Allard, the seat being defended by first-term New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu, and the seat currently being held by six-term Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska.

There are also an additional two Republican seats currently rated 'No Clear Favorite' for either party. First-term incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole is facing an increasingly troubled bid in North Carolina, and Mississippi Republican Sen. Roger Wicker is mounting an effort to win a special election for a seat to which he was appointed last December to fill a vacancy.

Democrats have set an even higher goal, though. They are aiming for a "filibuster-proof" majority of 60 seats. Since the Democrats currently control just 51 seats, including Independents Sen. Bernard Sanders of Vermont and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. This could be more than just a pipe dream for the Democratic Party. Four seats currently held by the GOP rated 'Leans Republican' are Oregon, Minnesota, Maine and Kentucky, where recent polls show Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell at much greater risk than had been expected. By contrast, only one Democratic seat, in Louisiana, is currently rated as competitive. And even there, two-term Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu has established a solid lead in recent polls.

The bottom line is that things have gotten worse for Senate Republicans over the past few weeks, so much worse that a magnitude of losses that seemed impossible just a few months ago now seem a reality.

CO (Allard) —This is a race between ideological opposites and Bob Schaffer (R) and Mark Udall (D) have largely firmed up their respective bases and are working to win over suburban swing voters. Both presidential campaigns are targeting Colorado and there are a number of labor initiatives on the ballot. As Election Day approaches, voters will be inundated with television and radio ads, mail, and phone calls from all sides. With this high level of political activity it is likely that this race will stay very competitive and in the Toss Up column until November 4th. Udall has just a 46 percent to 44 percent lead over Schaffer with 4 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 23. However, Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 49 percent to 44 percent while Schaffer's is 45 percent to 43 percent. Udall had led in this poll by 7 points in August. Udall still maintains a 13 point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

Coleman (MN) —Democrat Al Franken (D) leads Republican first-termer Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 43 percent to 37 percent with 17 percent for Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley (I) in a Rasmussen Reports poll published Oct. 9. Some Democrats express surprise that Franken is doing as well as he is considering the negative press he's gotten surrounding his taxes, failure to pay workers compensation insurance and past statements and writings. Democratic operatives also acknowledge that the third party candidate, Barkley is hurting Franken. However, Republicans argue that they have the upper hand, again pointing to Franken's high negatives and his multiple acknowledgements in television ads of mistakes. Republicans are pounding away on the question of whether Franken has the temperament to serve in the Senate. This race is still a Toss Up, but Coleman in most polling prior to this past week appears to have a lead within the margin of error.

Wicker (MS) —Sen. Roger Wicker (R), was appointed to fill out the term of retired Sen. Trent Lott. Currently he is statistically-tied with former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D), leading him 49 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. Wicker's favorable to unfavorably numbers are 59 percent to 36 percent compared to 51 percent to 44 percent for Musgrove. Musgrove has been described as "about as red as a Blue dog Democrat can be." In this race he will need to distance himself from the Obama ticket which still trying to reap the benefits of a strong African American turnout. This race could actually hinge on the state's notoriously arcane election law. Because it is a special election, Musgrove and Wicker will appear on the ballot without party identification, which could hurt both candidates.

Sununu (NH) —In a rematch of their 2002 race, Republican Senator John Sununu (R) and former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) are locked in a close race for U.S. Senate. Sununu had trailed Shaheen significantly over the past year but had narrowed her lead in the summer month. Recently, Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is maintaining a slim lead though many voters have not yet decided who they will vote for. In the latest, American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 6-8, Shaheen, lead Sununu 51 percent to 42 percent with 7 percent undecided. Sununu does enjoy some of the traditional advantages of incumbency even in a year in which the public is dissatisfied with Congress. His name is very familiar to state voters who earlier elected his father, a Democrat, but this race reminds solidly in the Toss Up category.

Dole (NC) —Democratic challenger Kay Hagan (D) is currently leading Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) 49 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Christopher Cole and 7 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 4-5. Dole is charged with the fact that she didn't spend enough time in the state during the first four years of her term. As chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee during the 2006 cycle, she spent two years raising money for the committee, and for GOP incumbents and challengers, which took time away from filling her own campaign coffers. As a result, Dole spent much of 2007 focused on fundraising instead of reacquainting voters with her record. In fact, she didn't begin her campaign until late May of 2008 thinking that she was safe.. The Obama-Biden campaign is making a serious play to win North Carolina and has poured many financial resources into the state. There is also a hotly contested gubernatorial contest, which Democrats felt at the beginning of the cycle was theirs to lose. The Senate contest has to compete with both races for voters' attention. Hagan is certainly hoping to be one of the beneficiaries of the effort Obama is making here, but it is not a given that Obama will win the state or that his campaign will help other Democrats down the ballot. Dole has to make inroads among independent and Democratic voters, but she is only taking 12 percent of Democrats while Hagan draws 9 percent of Republicans. Hagan also has an 11 point lead among Independents.

Smith (OR) —Two-term Republican Sen. Gordon Smith (R) is in a statistical tie with Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley (D), the speaker of the state House. Smith's problems appear to be many. First, he is dealing with the same bad political environment that is impacting many of his GOP Senate colleagues up for re-election this year. The combination of the Wall Street crisis, a weakening economy, and an unpopular President at the helm of a damaged Republican Party has exacted their toll on his campaign and image. Political strategists also recognize that Oregon has become more Democratic over the past several years. Democrats now enjoy an 11-point advantage in voter registration, accounting for 43 percent of registered voters. Republicans only make of 32 percent of the vote. Another problem facing both campaigns is that Oregon conducts its elections by mail. Absentee ballots have already started going out, and regular ballots will be mailed to voters starting October 17. It is estimated that at least one-third of voters will return their ballots within days of receiving them. As a result, the window of opportunity here closes before November 4. This one is just too close to call yet.

Stevens (AK) —This race had been dominated from the beginning by allegations of corruption. Republican Sen. Ted Stevens' (R) indictment on charges of concealing $250,000 in gifts and the news that at least one of his primary challengers had made a significant financial investment in the race raised the question of whether the incumbent would even survive the August 26 primary. He did survive the primary and the government continued with its case. Stevens has asserted his innocence and believes that he will be acquitted of the charges. If Stevens is found not guilty, he will be able to run on a message of vindication and he could well be re-elected. If he is found guilty, then he would almost certainly lose the race to Democrat Mark Begich(D).\, the mayor of Anchorage. Currently Stevens holds a statistically insignificant 49 percent to 48 percent lead over, Begich, This race could go either way.

Landrieu (LA) —In an election year when Democrats are expected to make nationwide gains in the Senate, the House and the Presidency, two-term incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) of conservative-leaning Louisiana stands out as the only Democrat among the dozen running for re-election who faces a remotely competitive race. Republicans are rallying behind the candidacy of Landrieu's challenger, state Treasurer John Kennedy (R), a recent convert to the GOP. Neither Landrieu nor Kennedy faced opposition in the state Sept. 6 primaries. Recently, Landrieu opened a 54 percent to 41 percent lead over Kennedy in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 25. This is Landrieu's race to lose.

NM (Domenici) —Democrat Tom Udall (D) is maintaining a steady, significant advantage over Republican Steve Pearce (R) in the race to replace retiring New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici. Polling from SurveyUSA conducted Sept. 14-16 indicated Udall leads Pearce 56 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent undecided, while a survey by Rasmussen Reports conducted Aug. 20 indicated Udall led Pearce 51 percent to 41 percent. Earlier this month the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) called off ads for the Senate race, releasing reserved air time that the campaign committee had planned to buy to increase Pearce's chances. The decision at least implies that the national party does not think it can hold the seat in November. Because of this, CQ Politics changed its rating on the race from Leans Democratic to the less competitive Democrat Favored.

VA (Warner) —In a race between former governors, Democrat Mark Warner (D) continues to hold a big lead over Republican Jim Gilmore (R), In a recent SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 4-5, Warner was running ahead by 61 percent to 31 percent. This race is clearly in the Solid Democrat category.

2008 SENATE RACE RATINGS
OCTOBER 9, 2008

Senate Lineup: 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 2 Independents
Senators with names in parentheses are retiring.

The chart below provides a spectrum that analyzes the vulnerability (the chances of the seat switching parties) of the Senate races up this cycle.

Solid: These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested.

Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.

Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.

Toss Up: These are the most competitive races; either party has a good chance of winning.

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