Election Watch 2008
Governors
Between the presidential contest, Democrats' push for 60 seats in the Senate, and their efforts to expand their majority in the House, little attention is being paid to the eleven gubernatorial contests on the ballot this year. Currently there are 28 Democratic held seats to 22 Republican held seats. In the end, this split may remain unchanged after November 4th.
On the Democratic side, the incumbent held seats in Montana, New Hampshire and West Virginia are all very safe. In the open- seat contest in Delaware, Democratic state Treasurer Jack Markell has a 31-point advantage, according to a West Chester University poll (October 6-8 of 429 likely voters). The seat will also stay in Democratic hands.
Democrats also have two seats in the Toss Up column; the open seat in North Carolina and Gov. Chris Gregoire in Washington. In North Carolina, Democratic Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue is locked in a tight race with GOP Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. Democrats have held the governorship for 16 years and Perdue has been Lieutenant Governor for eight of those. The hot race for Democrats is the race in Washington state. This is a rematch of the 2004 contest between Gregoire and former GOP state Sen. Dino Rossi-a race that Gregoire won by just 133 votes. The race is as close as ever and within the margin of error.
For Republicans, incumbent governors in North Dakota and Utah are shoo-ins for re-election. In Vermont, Gov. Jim Douglas is poised to win a fourth, two-year term, but it is not certain that he will get 50 percent or more of the vote required to keep the Democratic-controlled state legislature from deciding the race. The only other Republican incumbent seeking re-election is Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who is facing a very strong bump for his Democratic opponent from the Obama campaign.
The most problematic seat for Republicans is their open seat in Missouri. As demonstrated in the 2004 election, Missouri is the ultimate swing state. The presidential contest continues to remain close, it is may be very difficult for the GOP to hold onto this seat. Former Rep. Kenny Hulshof is down 7 points to state Attorney General Jay Nixon. The race has been rated Lean Democratic by Congressional Quarterly.
The Presidential race has dominated the political environment in each of these states. The Obama campaign has registered a stunning number of new voters and we may see turnout in record numbers. The Democrats have the advantage, but the Republican Governors may turn in surprising results.
Below is an overview of all the races as rated recently by the Cook Political Report.
2008 GOVERNORS RACES AT A GLANCE
(as of) OCTOBER 16, 2008
This list of potential candidates for the 2007/2008 elections is highly speculative and contains names that have been mentioned as either publicly or privately considering candidacies, or worthy of consideration as candidates or recruiting prospects by the parties or interest groups. The numerical key indicating our assessment of each person's likelihood of running is obviously important, given the "long and dirty" natrure of this list, which will be updated each week.
(1) Announced candidacy or certain to run; (2) Likely to run; (3) Maybe; (4) Mentioned but unlikely
| DELAWARE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filing Deadline: Jul. 25, 2008 Primary: Sep. 9, 2008 | |||
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS | LAST INCUM.% | COOK RATING |
| OPEN: Minner is term-limited Jack Markell, St. Treas. (1) | Bill Lee, ret. st. Supreme Court Justice, '00/'04 nom. (1) | 51% | Solid D |
| INDIANA | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filing Deadline: Feb. 22, 2008 Primary: May. 6, 2008 | |||
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS | LAST INCUM.% | COOK RATING |
| Jill Long Thompson, frmr U.S. Rep.,'02 IN-02 nom., '86 Sen. nom., frmr USDA Under Sc'y (1) | Mitch Daniels
Independents/Other Parties Timothy Lee Frye (I) (1) | 53% | Lean R |
| MISSOURI | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filing Deadline: Mar. 25, 2008 Primary: Aug. 5, 2008 | |||
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS | LAST INCUM.% | COOK RATING |
| Jay Nixon, Atty Gen. (1) |
OPEN: Blunt is retiring Kenny Hulshof, U.S. Rep. (1) Independents/Other Parties Andrew Finkelstadt (Libertarian) (1) Gregory Thompson (Constitution Party) (1) | 51% | Lean D |
| MONTANA | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filing Deadline: Mar. 20, 2008 Primary: Jun. 3, 2008 | |||
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS | LAST INCUM.% | COOK RATING |
| Brian Schweitzer | Roy Brown, st. Sen. (1)
Independents/Other Parties Stan Jones, perennial cand. (Libertarian)(1) | 50% | Solid D |
| NEW HAMPSHIRE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filing Deadline: Jun. 13, 2008 Primary: Sep. 9, 2008 | |||
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS | LAST INCUM.% | COOK RATING |
| John Lynch | Joe Kenney, st. Sen. (1)
Independents/Other Parties Susan Newell (Libertarian) (1) David Carleton Boyle (I) (1) | 74% | Solid D |
| NORTH CAROLINA | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filing Deadline: Feb. 29, 2008 Primary: May. 6, 2008 Runoff: Jun. 24, 2008 | |||
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS | LAST INCUM.% | COOK RATING |
| OPEN: Easley is term-limited
Beverly Perdue, Lt. Gov. (1) |
Pat McCrory, Charlotte Mayor (1)
Independents/Other Parties Michael Munger, Duke Univ. prof. (Libertarian)(1) | 56% | Toss Up |
| NORTH DAKOTA | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filing Deadline: Apr. 11, 2008 Primary: Jun. 10, 2008 | |||
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS | LAST INCUM.% | COOK RATING |
| Tim Mathern, State Senator (1) | John H. Hoeven | 71% | Solid R |
| UTAH | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filing Deadline: Mar. 17, 2008 Primary: Jun. 24, 2008 | |||
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS | LAST INCUM.% | COOK RATING |
| Bob Springmeyer, Management Consultant (1) |
Jon Huntsman
Independents/Other Parties Dell Schanze, bman (Libertarian)(1) | 58% | Solid R |
| VERMONT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filing Deadline: Jul. 21, 2008 Primary: Sep. 9, 2008 | |||
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS | LAST INCUM.% | COOK RATING |
| Gaye Symington, st. House Speaker (1) |
James H. Douglas
Independents/Other Parties Anthony Pollina, '00 Gov. nom., '04 LG nom. (I) (1) Sam Young, web designer (I) (1) Anthony O'Connor, ret. federal employee (I) (1) Peter Diamondstone, atty. (Liberty Union) (1) | 57% | Likely R |
| WASHINGTON | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filing Deadline: Jun. 6, 2008 Primary: Aug. 19, 2008 | |||
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS | LAST INCUM.% | COOK RATING |
| Christine Gregoire | Dino Rossi, fr. st. Sen., '04 Gov. nom. (1) | 49% | Toss Up |
| WEST VIRGINIA | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filing Deadline: Jan. 26, 2008 Primary: May. 13, 2008 | |||
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS | LAST INCUM.% | COOK RATING |
| Joe Manchin | Russ Weeks, frmr. st. Sen. (1) | 64% | Solid D |
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