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Economic and Credit Union Forecast

Economic, CU Forecast

Get the text explanation of this forecast here.


Economic Forecast
(September, 2016)
  Actual Results Quarterly Results/Forecasts Annual Forecasts
  5Yr Avg 2015 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2016 2017
Growth rates:
*Economic Growth (% chg GDP) 2.00% 2.40% 0.80% 1.40% 2.50% 2.50% 1.80% 2.40%
Inflation (% chg CPI) 1.55% 0.67%         2.00% 2.25%
Core Inflation (ex. food & energy) 1.92% 2.09%         2.25% 2.25%
Unemployment Rate 5.16% 5.00% 5.00% 4.90% 4.80% 4.80% 4.80% 4.60%
Fed Funds Rate 0.17% 0.24% 0.36% 0.38% 0.36% 0.60% 0.60% 1.40%
10-Year Treasury Rate 2.21% 2.24% 1.89% 1.64% 1.60% 1.90% 1.90% 2.25%
10-Year Fed Fund Spread 2.04% 2.00% 1.53% 1.26% 1.24% 1.30% 1.30% 0.85%
* Percent change, annual rate.
All other numbers are averages for the period

Credit Union Forecast
(September, 2016)
  Actual Results Quarterly Results/Forecasts Annual Forecasts
  5Yr Avg 2015 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2016 2017
Growth rates:
Savings growth* 5.2% 6.8% 3.6% 0.9% 1.5% 1.0% 7.0% 6.0%
Loan growth* 6.8% 10.5% 1.7% 3.1% 3.2% 2.0% 10.0% 9.0%
Asset growth* 5.6% 7.3% 3.0% 1.1% 1.7% 1.6% 7.5% 6.5%
Membership growth* 2.5% 3.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 3.8% 3.3%
Liquidity:
Loan-to-share ratio** 72.4% 77.7% 76.0% 77.7% 79.0% 79.8% 79.8% 82.0%
Asset quality:
Delinquency rate** 1.08% 0.81% 0.70% 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% 0.75%
Net chargeoff rate** 0.64% 0.48% 0.52% 0.51% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
Earnings:
Return on average assets (ROA)** 0.77% 0.75% 0.75% 0.79% 0.75% 0.75% 0.76% 0.65%
Capital adequacy:
Net worth ratio** 10.7% 10.9% 10.8% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7%
* End of period annualized rate
**End of period ratio
See also our MCUE website
If you have any questions or comments send an email to ppineda@cuna.coop

Get a PDF file of this info here.

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